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Dealing With Variance

There will be prolonged good and bad streaks in almost every season. Do not overreact to either when making decisions on future bets. It is extremely important to have realistic expectations (we will not win every week, no one does), discipline, long term focus, and sound money management.

Real life examples:


Feb 28-Mar 13, 2009: RAS CBB totals 6-18 (-13.8 units) followed by 8-1 (+6.9 units) run the rest of the season.

RAS totals have hit over 58% lifetime, an almost unheard of long term win rate, but even they are subject to bad short term runs.

Dec 30, 2009-Feb 2, 2010: RAS CBB sides 25-41 (-20.40 units) followed by 41-24 (+16.50 units) run the rest of the season.

Keep in mind that both of the above swings were part of highly successful seasons. The swings could be even worse during a medicore season.

May 15-May 27, 2010: HoopsEdge WNBA: 6-14 (-10.60 units) followed by 40-24 (+13.90 units) run the rest of the season.

A good percentage of recreational bettors would either run out of money or lose confidence and quit following after losing -13.8 units, -10.6 units, or -20.40 units in a short time frame. Thus, they would completely miss out on the subsequent +6.9 unit, +13.90 unit, and +16.50 unit runs. This is why expecting and being prepared to handle variance is so important to the success of a sports bettor.


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