|College Basketball Handicapper:|
What is closing line value?
Line Value is determined by taking the difference between a line on a bet that was previously made and comparing it to the closing line. The closing line (consensus line on a game when it starts) is considered to be the most accurate line available therefore if you are consistently getting a better line than what the closing line is, you are very likely to be a long term winner. This is one method used by sportsbooks to identify "sharp" action. It is also the best way for the public to determine if a handicapper is a real long term winner in contrast to services making fraudulent claims and using deceptive marketing. Comparing 10 plays from any handicapper against the closing line will tell you a lot more about the handicapper than wins and losses will from a small sample size.
Right Angle Sports focuses on smaller conferences and bets such as totals which have a much smaller market size than say an NFL Monday Night game. Such smaller market bets are subject to high line volatility. This combined with the tremendous following RAS has built up from years of success equates to Right Angle Sports plays producing as much or more closing line value than any public handicapping service in the industry.
In 2007, RAS college football plays beat the closing line by an average of 1.61 points per pick.
In 2008, RAS college football plays beat the closing line by an average of 2.65 points per pick
As of 12/14/08, RAS 2008-09 college basketball side plays are beating the closing line by 1.32 points per pick, and total plays are beating the closing line by 3.19 points per pick.
The college basketball service produces even greater average closing line value than what is listed above!
Line Movement Simulation
Below is a simulation of what happens after a RAS play is released. Note the clock on the top left hand corner:
Pros and Cons of Line Movement
Pros: If you place a bet in the morning at pick'em then check back later in the day and see it is at -2.5, not only are you very likely to be sitting on a +EV (expected value) play, but you now have the option of hedging a portion of your bet to go for a middle (bets at pk and +2.5 would both win if the game lands on 1 or 2). This added value will actually improve the odds (lower the juice) on your original bet and require a lower win rate to show profit.
Example: If you place a wager on Team A (pick'em -110) $1100 to win $1000 early in the day, then later you are able to bet Team B (pick'em +120) at $500 to win $600, you would now be risking $500 to win $500 on team A and essentially erasing the juice. Bets like this would move your break even point from 52.5% (at standard -110 juice) to a much easier 50%.
Cons: The obvious con of line movement is that you have to place bets quickly and you may not be able to bet as much as you would like to. Lines will start moving almost immediately as RAS plays are released. You must be well prepared and experiment with different outs (some sportsbooks move lines faster than others) and different betting methods (phone/online, etc) to give yourself a chance at getting the best line possible. Every 1/2 point lost will deduct from your edge and eventually your bottom line. Before any play is released, RAS subscribers will receive a 10-15 minute advanced warning that will help them to be prepared for this process.
Starting with the 2008 college basketball season all plays will be released on our new web countdown interface that will ensure that all subscribers have equal and fair access to plays.
Do not hesitate to contact me with any questions or comments regarding line movement or the service in general.
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